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Copy of Prediction Error


I owe a lot to Chad Mackin, The Bell Brothers, and Stuart White.

I don’t know either personally but their directional guidance has led to a lot of opportunities.



I’ll explain The Bells first. the youngest brother Chris created the film Bigger Stronger Faster about the American way of drug use to benefit athletics. Their brother Mike ‘Mad Dog’ Bell was very close to making it to the WWE but fell short. He had a Bipolar Disorder diagnosis and a history of drug use. A lot of it is documented in the film done by Chris. Chris goes on to make another movie called Prescription Thugs where he unveils some of Big Pharma ways of keeping people on medication. Particularly opiates. He reveals half way that he has hidden a problem with substances from everyone. He also reveals that Mad Dog has taken his own life. (I'm sorry if you haven’t seen the films)

Then there was the middle brother Mark who had become an entrepreneur, fitness mogul and spokesperson, strength athlete, many world records and accolades. He has a no quit mentality and is strong in his beliefs. I draw many of my lifestyle choices from his podcast. Chris goes on to rehab and I believe is sober for many years. I’ll get back to why these brothers shifted my mindset.

Chad Mackin is a dog trainer that I heard another trainer talking about and checked out his podcast. It was applicable to my life because I had a young puppy at the time. Chad was taking about a concept called Prediction Error as a model for learning. It suggests that the spike in rewarding brain activity we receive in a conditioned setting is actually from the anticipation of the reward than the reward itself.



Think of this in dog terms. It’s a different way to describe Pavlov’s dog. The salivation occurs because the dog is conditioned but now we know it occurs on a rewarding brain level. I’m a Child and Youth Care Practitioner and always think of how I can apply new concepts to my practice as a CYCP. So I thought of it in human terms. Wednesday before payday feels so nice you’re already thinking of all the pumpkin spice you’re gonna buy. But then payday comes and it’s not nearly as rewarding as the thought of what you were gonna do with that money. Between fees on your pay and and living expenses there isn’t much room for pumpkin spice. Ok just one. Today.

The concept of Prediction Error intrigued me so I had some colleagues read over an article by Stuart White and even emailed him some thoughts on his article studying youth behavioral disorders and this prediction error process. I expand on this concept into a prediction of behaviours and responding accordingly based on the spectrum of disorders they have. I have used this concept countless times to disrupt and discourage behaviours in youth.

But I’ve always felt a bit like a fraud. I pride myself in my work but always feel like I’ll be challenged and freeze so sometimes I don’t act on my good ideas. I needed to prove to myself that I could make changes in my life. I felt the need to document my thoughts during the process so you can see how I think.

Back to the Bell brothers. I took this concept of prediction error and found a study relating to Bipolar Disorder. This was especially important to my shift in mindset and the Bell brothers resonate with me because at 31 I was diagnosed with Bipolar Disorder. There are three paths with these brothers, one who obsessed over his athleticism and became very successful. Another does the same as well facing some demons. The third sadly passed after a struggle with mental health challenges.

The study that referenced bipolar suggests to me that it can be a conscious effort to change where the dopamine gets rewarded from negative behaviours to positive. This is what has changed my views on education, mental health, and faith.


I need to predict my future. If I can’t it causes me great anxiety. (Yes there is a study relating to anxiety). Then when I try and fail I feel depressed (yes another study). I have used cannabis regularly to manage these symptoms but lately I feel like I’ve reached its peak. I’ve written a blog post about this. (Yes I talk about this in the book).

I’m so thankful this coincidence happenstance occurred. And I believe that I wrote a book to share how my mindset started to change. I took the work of these 5 people and prayed about how I could use their knowledge to benefit myself and the youth I work with. I kept getting closer to God and my life started to change. Things become easier (not easy. I still struggle. I can’t be perfect). I get better and I love to share my testimony with you.

As I write and pack envelopes that my anxiety has kept me from sending, I thought I'd give a free copy:




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